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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Well if you are short the stock you need to justify it one way or the other... 35% short of the float... massive...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    Well if you are short the stock you need to justify it one way or the other... 35% short of the float... massive...

     

    This is the weird part.

    Every veteran of the stock market knows what to look for in a stock, Tesla doesn't have any of the key points. Hence the massive short. Yet, it's stock is over 3 times what the true value is. 

    Only explanation is that there are enough people to believe what Elon promised and willing to bet their money for the moonshot.

    According to Elon, it does have 'massive' growth potential, if they hit the targets and scale up as Elon promised. The Model 3 ramp up, the promise of a 'game changer' new Roadster, the promise of a 'fantastic' semi. Of the 3, the Tesla semi is the only one remotely possible to hit it's target and the only one I can stake my believe in.

    The Roadster is too overhyped, it defies physics per what Elon promised. The Model 3, the ramp up has been delayed basically for over a year, it does have a massive back log of orders, but in the mean time, other manufacturers are squeezing in to steal market shares while Elon is sorting out his 'production hell' cause he didn't do due diligence. 

    The semi, basically the trucking section, is the only place where Elon can have his monopoly, and hence massive profits. Model 3 is not gonna earn the company much if at all. Elon is staking his claim on the wrong turf. The cheap entry level segment will be too competitive for Tesla, they are a boutique manufacturer, they should have stick to the boutique approach where margins can be guaranteed. In car business, they have like 50 competitors, but in the truck business they only have a hand full. 

    Had Elon drop the Model 3 goal and concentrate on trucks, I ma pretty sure the Tesla semi can go to market within 12 months from when they had announced and catch everyone napping, cornering the market in the process. 

    Model 3 could be Tesla's Hitler's Russian campaign. Biting off more than they can swallowed. Tesla up until now is like the Nazi campaign in WW2, blitzkrieg with the Model S and Model X. Extremely successful to begin the war. But once Hitler chose the wrong target, the end is near. Just like the Model 3. 

    Tesla was and is never ready for a 'mass production' mainstream car, which is what the Model 3 is. They simply don't have the knowhow to begin with.

     

     

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    Well if you are short the stock you need to justify it one way or the other... 35% short of the float... massive...

    It's an easy stock to short though. No yield, lots of liquidity, easy to get borrow. I think it's telling that there are no activist investors of note that publicly own the shares though. You'd think that with such a large amount of short positions there would be at least one activist of note and there isn't. Also there isn't 35% short it's 38.3M shares or 22.67% (which is still a lot!)

    Just like a lot of other "name brand" stocks that people think they understand because they have a day to day interaction with there are a lot of investors that think they are smarter then they actually are. In both directions. That momentum isn't rational and leads many less sophisticated investors to gamble rather than invest. 

    The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
    --

     

    Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Segueing slightly away from just the equity component, the following article on the introduction of the Ford Model A is informative in the context of Tesla.  

    https://www.hemmings.com/blog/2013/12/02/this-day-in-history-1927-ford-reveals-its-model-a-to-an-eager-public/#comments-block

    Note that deposits, within days of the Model A's introduction reached 400,000 and some sources have the total deposits  over 720,000 when production began.  Tesla's achievements are notably but pale in comparison to Henry Ford's and his Ford Motor Company's achievements a hundred years ago.  He focused, and some would say too fanatically, on the production system, wrangling out waste and inefficiencies, in some cases to the detriment of product.  The Model A was to rectify those product issues as he kept the Model T too long in production with his competitors meeting and exceeding the Model T.  

    That focus on production resulted in the Model T, for a period of time, being available only in black.  Early cars used paints that took weeks to dry.  Therefore, car bodies sat in fields as the paint dried.  This increased work-in-process and consumed badly needed working capital.  Ford tasked his engineers to develop a quick dry paint.  The only paint they found was stovepipe paint, which could only be manufactured in black.  Ford made the decision to adopt that paint and force all Model Ts to be black for a period of time.  General Motors, who's major equity holder was DuPont Chemicals, was able to later develop a quick dry paint in myriad colors. Ford than adopted colors for the somewhat antiquated Model T for several years before he introduced the Model A.

    Another area was in vertical integration of the supply chain.  Ford found that the French luxury automakers relied upon a vanadium based steel, which made the steel stronger than the alloys found in the States.  Stronger steel also meant that less steel was required per car body, again reducing production costs.  After Ford couldn't source a reliable supply for production, he decided to enter the steel making business by purchasing iron ore mines in upper Michigan, ore boats to transport that ore, and building a steel plant at the edge of his River Rouge production facility in Dearborn, Michigan.

    Tesla, beyond the Gigafactory for batteries, hasn't shown the same spirit of innovation as Henry Ford and his Ford Motor Company.  Tesla's products aren't bleeding, let alone cutting, edge products compared with its peers.  Production methods lag too.  Tesla's sole advantage of being the first mover was squandered as Musk micromanaged the process. With the pending introduction of comparable EVs by the major automakers, Tesla is just beginning to feel the brute force of competition.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Don’t tell them the truth, they can’t handle the truth. broken heart


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla was at the forefront of technology for a while, they were the first to introduce autopilot, it may not be the best system now but they are the first to do it.

    They are also the first to enter the mainstream EV market, and the offering is much better than the previous EV car from GM, Honda, etc.

    They had the sales lead for a while, but now the Nissan Leaf has surpassed them and become the best selling EV car. By quite a large margin.

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    Tesla was at the forefront of technology for a while, they were the first to introduce autopilot, it may not be the best system now but they are the first to do it.

    They are also the first to enter the mainstream EV market, and the offering is much better than the previous EV car from GM, Honda, etc.

    They had the sales lead for a while, but now the Nissan Leaf has surpassed them and become the best selling EV car. By quite a large margin.

     

    Give you points as Tesla was the first automaker to take EVs out of the eccentric kook and economy car model that others had adopted.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    They had the sales lead for a while, but now the Nissan Leaf has surpassed them and become the best selling EV car. By quite a large margin.

     

    in Europe, number 1 is Renault ZOE by multiple time Tesla sales...Smiley


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    GT Lover, Porsche fan

    991.2 GT3 arriving, 991 GT3 2014(sold)

    Cayenne GTS 2014


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    the-missile:
    Whoopsy:

    They had the sales lead for a while, but now the Nissan Leaf has surpassed them and become the best selling EV car. By quite a large margin.

     

    in Europe, number 1 is Renault ZOE by multiple time Tesla sales...Smiley

     

    Renault and Nissan are practically the same company Smiley


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:
    the-missile:
    Whoopsy:

    They had the sales lead for a while, but now the Nissan Leaf has surpassed them and become the best selling EV car. By quite a large margin.

     

    in Europe, number 1 is Renault ZOE by multiple time Tesla sales...Smiley

     

    Renault and Nissan are practically the same company Smiley

    Funny, when I see a Tesla S on the road it always reminds me of the typical Renault sedan Smiley both inside and out... except in the pricetag Smiley


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    ⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Carlos from Spain:
    Whoopsy:
    the-missile:
    Whoopsy:

    They had the sales lead for a while, but now the Nissan Leaf has surpassed them and become the best selling EV car. By quite a large margin.

     

    in Europe, number 1 is Renault ZOE by multiple time Tesla sales...Smiley

     

    Renault and Nissan are practically the same company Smiley

    Funny, when I see a Tesla S on the road it always reminds me of the typical Renault sedan Smiley both inside and out... except in the pricetag Smiley


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    ⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS

     

    Can’t be.  Renault builds a better car within the framework of many parameters, has a management team including CEO singularly focused on producing high quality, affordable, and available product, and a much better relationship with its workers.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Renault cars are so fantastic that you can’t buy one in the USA smiley (mind you I am french)...

    From what I am reading, the Tesla body and frame is actually not very well designed, expensive to put together and too heavy. I guess they originally put all the money in the technology and battery (which were very expensive then). Can you even imagine how good the S and X new generation will be? I am still laughing that all the comparaisons are made between mostly 2019-2020 vaporware cars at fantasy prices vs a 2013 designed S model...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    Renault cars are so fantastic that you can’t buy one in the USA smiley (mind you I am french)...

    From what I am reading, the Tesla body and frame is actually not very well designed, expensive to put together and too heavy. I guess they originally put all the money in the technology and battery (which were very expensive then). Can you even imagine how good the S and X new generation will be? I am still laughing that all the comparaisons are made between mostly 2019-2020 vaporware cars at fantasy prices vs a 2013 designed S model...

     

    It's what happens when the production cycle doesn't match up. 

    Mission E is coming out real soon, gonna have a test drive in it when I head to Germany, while the next gen Model something is still vaporware though. Tesla might not even survive to produce the next gen cars. 

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    Renault cars are so fantastic that you can’t buy one in the USA smiley (mind you I am french)...

    From what I am reading, the Tesla body and frame is actually not very well designed, expensive to put together and too heavy. I guess they originally put all the money in the technology and battery (which were very expensive then). Can you even imagine how good the S and X new generation will be? I am still laughing that all the comparaisons are made between mostly 2019-2020 vaporware cars at fantasy prices vs a 2013 designed S model...

    The same tired arguments made on every Tesla Cultist website...General Motors in the 1990s made a vastly superior EV; however, the battery technology lagged behind its current state employing lithium ion technology.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Nissan sales down 28% last month... That must be Elon Musk fault somewhere...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:
    SciFrog:

    Renault cars are so fantastic that you can’t buy one in the USA smiley (mind you I am french)...

    From what I am reading, the Tesla body and frame is actually not very well designed, expensive to put together and too heavy. I guess they originally put all the money in the technology and battery (which were very expensive then). Can you even imagine how good the S and X new generation will be? I am still laughing that all the comparaisons are made between mostly 2019-2020 vaporware cars at fantasy prices vs a 2013 designed S model...

     

    It's what happens when the production cycle doesn't match up. 

    Mission E is coming out real soon, gonna have a test drive in it when I head to Germany, while the next gen Model something is still vaporware though. Tesla might not even survive to produce the next gen cars. 

     

    Indeed, no one is really expecting a new generation until 2021-2022 or so... if they make it... 9 year run for a first gen model, not bad...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    ***** Tesla Inc. Q1 2018 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast *****

    • Wednesday 2nd May 2018 at 2:30pm PT (Pacific Time)

    Link: http://ir.tesla.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=188711


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    Nissan sales down 28% last month... That must be Elon Musk fault somewhere...

    Nissan is shifting U.S. strategy away from fleet sales to help bolster resale values.  Company focused on volume, at the expense of profitability.  A shift in strategy isn’t unexpected as the Nissan/Renault consortium has added Mitsubishi to the product mix.  Mitsubishi can take a low profit approach to increase sales volume and Nissan can shift to a higher margin strategy.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-burns-cash/

    Before the Tesla cultists cry foul, this article is written quite objectively, it basically condenses all the facts about Tesla's financing. 

     

    This is another 

    https://www.ferraris-online.com/pages/article.php?reqart=FOC_201708_SS


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Mithras:
    SciFrog:

    Well if you are short the stock you need to justify it one way or the other... 35% short of the float... massive...

    It's an easy stock to short though. No yield, lots of liquidity, easy to get borrow. I think it's telling that there are no activist investors of note that publicly own the shares though. You'd think that with such a large amount of short positions there would be at least one activist of note and there isn't. Also there isn't 35% short it's 38.3M shares or 22.67% (which is still a lot!)

    Just like a lot of other "name brand" stocks that people think they understand because they have a day to day interaction with there are a lot of investors that think they are smarter then they actually are. In both directions. That momentum isn't rational and leads many less sophisticated investors to gamble rather than invest. 

    The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
    --

     

    Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region

     

    Market conventions use the float when calculating short interest. So 38.3m shares out of 126.8m is 30% or so... Which is large by any measure.

    Options imply a 8% move at earnings... not for the faint of heart...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Aaaaaaaaaaaand the stock does nothing :)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Boxster Coupe GTS:

    ***** Tesla Inc. Q1 2018 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast *****

    • Wednesday 2nd May 2018 at 2:30pm PT (Pacific Time)

    Link: http://ir.tesla.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=188711

    Tesla Inc. Q1 2018 Results

    Link: http://ir.tesla.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=188711

    PDF Link: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/6239710163x0x979026/44C49236-1FC2-4FD9-80B1-495ED74E4194/TSLA_Update_Letter_2018-1Q.pdf


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Negative gross margin for the Model 3 and shares up 3% in after hours trading.  This company, and its investors, remain an anomaly.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    To the Tesla cultists, this quarterly report is very rosy.

    They managed to make more than 2000 cars a week for 3 weeks now, that'a a record. and is almost half way there to the target of 5000 a week, in a couple months.

    They say they can do it, so why doubt them. They never hit any of their targets ever not withstanding.

    They also reduced Capex by at least 1/2 a billion, so they are not bleeding as badly now. Still bleeding though.

    Not counting the money needed to pay off the debt this year, they should have enough money to last till Dec 31st. And They are hoping the Model 3 ramp up will produce enough revenue, and profit, to refill the piggy bank so they don't need to borrow more money. And can start walking on 2 feet. Optimistic, but not undoable.Will be a stretch still. 

    The report sort of ease the immediate pressure, some thinks it's a big positive, hence the little pop after hours, but now it's like sort of didn't move much anymore. 

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    To the Tesla cultists, this quarterly report is very rosy.

    They managed to make more than 2000 cars a week for 3 weeks now, that'a a record. and is almost half way there to the target of 5000 a week, in a couple months.

    They say they can do it, so why doubt them. They never hit any of their targets ever not withstanding.

    They also reduced Capex by at least 1/2 a billion, so they are not bleeding as badly now. Still bleeding though.

    Not counting the money needed to pay off the debt this year, they should have enough money to last till Dec 31st. And They are hoping the Model 3 ramp up will produce enough revenue, and profit, to refill the piggy bank so they don't need to borrow more money. And can start walking on 2 feet. Optimistic, but not undoable.Will be a stretch still. 

    The report sort of ease the immediate pressure, some thinks it's a big positive, hence the little pop after hours, but now it's like sort of didn't move much anymore. 

    Investor Q&A seems to be going well on the Q1 conference call after hours...

    1525299633406image.jpeg


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Yeah it happens. 

    Will probably move even more tomorrow as everyone got a chance to examine in detail the reports and what it means to the company. 


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    That conference call was quite something! A big FU to all shareholders... and the love hate relation continues... Musk seems very confident he won’t need cash this year, and with last night’s call he better not... Funny this behavior happens when the metrics are better... « Boring » and « so dry » are not very common in public companies vocabulary.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    That conference call was quite something! A big FU to all shareholders... and the love hate relation continues... Musk seems very confident  he won’t need cash this year, and with last night’s call he better not... Funny this behavior happens when the metrics are better... « Boring » and « super dry » are not very common in public companies vocabulary Smiley

    - 7% pre-market...


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    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    "Tesla Sinks After Musk Rejects Questions on Cash" (Bloomberg)

    (3 May 2018)

    The earnings report started optimistically enough, with Elon Musk forecasting an end to Tesla Inc.’s cash-burning days after blazing through another $1 billion last quarter.

    But by the end of Tesla’s first-quarter conference call, Musk was berating analysts for asking “boring” questions, and any shred of predictability was out the window. Investors cringed, sending the stock down as much as 7.4 percent to $279 in early trading Thursday.

    Musk, 46, has built up a showman’s reputation as the founder and chief executive officer of Tesla, calling on true believers to help him overcome the “haters” who question his company’s ability to usher in an electric-vehicle age on an ambitious timetable. His performance Wednesday revealed his willingness to bite the hand that feeds, ridiculing representatives of Wall Street’s biggest banks who tried to pinpoint how he’d live up to his promises to build more Model 3 sedans and generate cash in the second half of the year.

    Musk cut off analysts’ queries about the company’s capital requirements and whether it was retaining Model 3 reservation holders, calling the questions “so dry” and “not cool.”

    “The boring questions can also be categorized as the tough ones,” said Dave Sullivan, an analyst at AutoPacific Inc. “I hope the Tesla fans know how to swim, because without the answers to the tough questions, it looks like Musk is leading them straight into the water.”


    The often-colorful Musk unveiled what he portrayed as Tesla’s first mass-market car more than two years ago but has pushed back Model 3 manufacturing targets several times. Slow output has limited the amount of money coming in from customers taking delivery and tested Tesla’s balance sheet.

    Prospective patrons have showed patience -- there are still more than 450,000 reservation holders waiting, and customer deposits keep rising, approaching almost $1 billion as of March 31.

    Putting Down More Money
    Tesla keeps receiving more payments from prospective purchasers...

    Screen Shot 2018-05-03 at 14.13.36.png

    When Joe Spak, an RBC Capital Markets analyst who rates Tesla the equivalent of a hold, asked Musk how many Model 3 reservation holders were actually taking the step to configure their car when invited to do so, a pause followed.

    “We’re going to YouTube,” Musk said, referring to the owner of a channel on the video-streaming service who had lobbied the CEO ahead of time for the chance to ask questions on behalf of retail investors.

    “Sorry,” Musk said, “these questions are so dry. They’re killing me.”

    Elon Musk’s Most Dumbfounding Moments on Tesla’s Earnings Call

    Tesla’s balance sheet also was a sore subject for Musk. While Tesla expressed confidence about the second half of the year, negative free cash flow was more than $1 billion for the third time in the last four quarters. The result was also worse than analysts’ average estimate for cash burn of about $978 million.

    Tesla's Cash Flow

    The electric-car maker went through more than $1 billion again in the first quarter...

    Screen Shot 2018-05-03 at 14.14.46.png

    Tesla had $2.67 billion in cash on hand at the end of the first quarter, down from the $3.37 billion at the end of last year. Toni Sacconaghi of Sanford C. Bernstein, who rates the company the equivalent of a hold, bore the brunt of Musk’s sharpest words after asking about capital requirements.

    “Excuse me. Next. Next,” Musk said to the call operator. “Boring, bonehead questions are not cool. Next?”

    Manufacturing Reset

    Model 3 production probably will pause for about 10 days this quarter, an estimated duration that includes a shutdown last month to address bottlenecks. While Tesla’s battery module line was the main issue plaguing output for months, that’s been resolved, according to the company. Musk now expects to be able to make 5,000 cars’ worth a week before installing an automation system from its German manufacturing unit Grohmann.

    On the call, Musk said Tesla is poised to surpass all rivals in manufacturing.

    “A really great production system is primarily a software problem, and there’s no one in the auto industry that is remotely as good as Tesla at software,” he said. “Tesla is way better at software than any other car company.”

    Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-02/tesla-projects-end-to-cash-burning-era-as-model-3-gains-traction



     
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