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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The lower prices in Germany will certainly help them to move more cars, no doubt about it. 

    I rather feel however that they did that because the pressure has intensified, not because they switched to online sales only. 

    Speaking of online sales only: In Germany (and some other EU countries), this may not be the best idea I'm afraid. We live in a country where many people don't even have a credit card (or like using one), let alone ordering a 100k EUR car on the internet, so...bad idea in my opinion. Also people want to do test-drives, to see/feel the car.


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Mercedes C63 S AMG Cab (2019), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Interesting...Germany has already surpassed the US (Tesla) in EV production...

    PNG-McKinsey-Electric-Vehicle-Index-2019-bersicht.png

    Over 300(!) new EV models will hit the markets in 2019 and 2020, Tesla is going to be in trouble.


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Mercedes C63 S AMG Cab (2019), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I hardly ever see a German EV on the roads , hardly ever . Once and a while a I3 or I8 . That's it . I see Tesla's every km I drive . Where are all these German EV's ? Never saw the Audi e-tron , is it on the road ? 

    Also once a while a Zoe ( Renault ) . No other euro EV 

    Not saying they will not come, but for the moment , none to be seen .  Lot's of talk at the moment 

     


    --

     

     964 Carrera 4 --  997.2 C2S , -20mm -- 991.2 GT3 RS 

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Many Europeans here seem to think the EV market is only so big. Well with the large number of new offerings, it is probably going to get MUCH bigger. For all we know, there could be more than enough room for all manufacturers. Plus it is not yet proven the Germans will actually offer better products/packages than Tesla does. So far, they have been underwhelming in performance and price which is offset buy a higher quality and interior.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    German are recognized as premium cars but Tesla is recognized as EV. Going EV for everybody will give a space for Tesla. And that is coming from a guy which is not Tesla fanboy. They are price reasonably now, if they survive the cash requirement it will be a success. 


    --

    GT Lover, Porsche fan

    991.2 GT3 manual, 991 GT3 2014(sold)

    Cayenne GTS 2014


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    MKSGR:
    SciFrog:

    What is Tesla supposed to do? Artificially keep prices too high like Porsche does and let the others eat away at their market penetration? Tesla has no rules, it will change prices, options, offerings as needed to stay relevant in the increasing competitive EV space. They care more about volume than they care about profits.

    This is a bit too simple... They burn other peoples money. Big time. Somebody has to pay for the resulting depreciation of the cars they sold... They will certainly gain customers with the much lower prices. But they will also certainly distract many, many existing customers whose money they took with this price reduction. This is an extremely risky undertaking, I feel. And given they are forced by liquidity shortage I am not convinced the strategic impact did play a major role in their decision process Smiley

    Could not agree more with your statement.  Tesla is setting itself up for a price war; one that it will not be able to win when compared to the deep, deep pockets of the legacy automakers.  The German makers, for example, are promoting EVs as an alternate prime mover much as they have with diesel, petrol, and natgas.  Fuel cells form another alternate prime mover mode.  This strategy, while not appearing disruptive, allows for greater parts sharing opportunities which leads to economies of scale with improving costing options.  

    A couple of evening's ago, I had an interesting pre-dinner conversation with a fashion industry consultant.  What impressed me was her understanding, though she did not realize it, of market conditions similar to that in the tech industry.  One of the best primers on the subject if Geoffrey Moore's Crossing the Chasm from nearly thirty years ago.  She understood the differences among first adopters, second adopters, early mainstream, late mainstream, and laggards much better than Tesla understands the differentiations.  

    An associate recently quipped that he believes Musk is carefully calculating his exit from Tesla based on his rather unstable behavior as the SEC refocuses its attention on his Tweets.  Several days ago several security lawyers were quoted in an article stating that the SEC will have Musk removed as CEO of Tesla.  Coupled with these actions, Tesla is no longer able to tap the U.S. capital markets, and probably the reason he is crowing about raising capital in China.  That action can have an adverse outcome too as the Chinese government could wrestle a significant part of the company away.  

    If Musk is removed from Tesla, he then has a platform to leverage if the company fails without his sterling leadership.  This does fit the Musk profile.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I"m sorry but you're delusional if you think that Tesla couldn't tap the capital markets right now. I'd put a bought deal in front of them in a nano-second if I thought they would accept it and so would anyone in their syndicate of banks. 


    --

    Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:
    MKSGR:
    SciFrog:

    What is Tesla supposed to do? Artificially keep prices too high like Porsche does and let the others eat away at their market penetration? Tesla has no rules, it will change prices, options, offerings as needed to stay relevant in the increasing competitive EV space. They care more about volume than they care about profits.

    This is a bit too simple... They burn other peoples money. Big time. Somebody has to pay for the resulting depreciation of the cars they sold... They will certainly gain customers with the much lower prices. But they will also certainly distract many, many existing customers whose money they took with this price reduction. This is an extremely risky undertaking, I feel. And given they are forced by liquidity shortage I am not convinced the strategic impact did play a major role in their decision process Smiley

    Could not agree more with your statement.  Tesla is setting itself up for a price war; one that it will not be able to win when compared to the deep, deep pockets of the legacy automakers.  The German makers, for example, are promoting EVs as an alternate prime mover much as they have with diesel, petrol, and natgas.  Fuel cells form another alternate prime mover mode.  This strategy, while not appearing disruptive, allows for greater parts sharing opportunities which leads to economies of scale with improving costing options.  

    A couple of evening's ago, I had an interesting pre-dinner conversation with a fashion industry consultant.  What impressed me was her understanding, though she did not realize it, of market conditions similar to that in the tech industry.  One of the best primers on the subject if Geoffrey Moore's Crossing the Chasm from nearly thirty years ago.  She understood the differences among first adopters, second adopters, early mainstream, late mainstream, and laggards much better than Tesla understands the differentiations.  

    An associate recently quipped that he believes Musk is carefully calculating his exit from Tesla based on his rather unstable behavior as the SEC refocuses its attention on his Tweets.  Several days ago several security lawyers were quoted in an article stating that the SEC will have Musk removed as CEO of Tesla.  Coupled with these actions, Tesla is no longer able to tap the U.S. capital markets, and probably the reason he is crowing about raising capital in China.  That action can have an adverse outcome too as the Chinese government could wrestle a significant part of the company away.  

    If Musk is removed from Tesla, he then has a platform to leverage if the company fails without his sterling leadership.  This does fit the Musk profile.

    I understand that the $521 million loan that Tesla has raised to fund the factory in China is non-recourse to Tesla Inc but it only has a 1-year maturity, so the risk is if they cannot refinance the loan within a year, then in a credit downside scenario the China factory could potentially end up in the hands of the local Chinese lending banks... Smiley

    Electric carmaker Tesla Inc said Thursday it signed an agreement with lenders in China for a 12-month credit facility of up to 3.5 billion yuan, or about $521 million, for the company's Gigafactory in Shanghai.

    The company broke ground on the factory in January.

    An SEC filing said Tesla entered into an agreement with China Construction Bank Corporation, Agricultural Bank of China Limited , Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited,  and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co., Ltd. 

    "The proceeds of such loans may be used only for expenditures related to the construction of and production at our Gigafactory Shanghai. The China Loan Agreement will terminate and all outstanding loans will mature on March 4, 2020, and the loan facility is non-recourse to Tesla," the filing said.

    ...could Elon Musk unwittingly end up constructing an EV factory for the Chinese government? Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Mithras:

    I"m sorry but you're delusional if you think that Tesla couldn't tap the capital markets right now. I'd put a bought deal in front of them in a nano-second if I thought they would accept it and so would anyone in their syndicate of banks. 

    That does differ from I have been hearing but I haven't been following the company for overall news in the cap mkts.  Therefore, I stand corrected.  Thank you for the productive insight.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:
    Mithras:

    I"m sorry but you're delusional if you think that Tesla couldn't tap the capital markets right now. I'd put a bought deal in front of them in a nano-second if I thought they would accept it and so would anyone in their syndicate of banks. 

    That does differ from I have been hearing but I haven't been following the company for overall news in the cap mkts.  Therefore, I stand corrected.  Thank you for the productive insight.

    I don't really follow them religiously or pour over the financial statements but it looks like they paid off the converts, the Chinese syndicate gave them a $521m 1-year loan at 90% of PBC posted rate (works out to just over 3.9%) and the Chinese are giving them land to build the battery factory. They also increased the accordion on their LoC. I didn't look but it looks like they might have used $500m to pay off part of the converts and got another $200m in expansion. 

    If I was Tesla I'd be fine with the year term on the debt because you know that they will convert it to construction financing once you break ground and that is longer term. Then they can just put on more traditional mortgage financing afterwards if they'd like. 

    The one thing that hasn't really been mentioned in all of this is raw material. Tell me what the price is for Lithium right now. 3N, 4N, 5N+... Is there a spot price? Nope. Totally opaque market with no real new supply (and there was rain in Chile this year so you loose a bunch of production out of the atacama). Tesla has off takes with a bunch of lithium producers (there aren't a lot) and I'm pretty sure have almost all of the hard rock lithium tied up. You want to build EVs? You need batteries. And in those batteries you need lithium. Teslas might not be the best EV, or the one that makes you happy but are fantastic at the peripherals. Charging, home power, solar and batteries. 


    --

    Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Getting money is not a problem, never was, but getting good terms on financing is.

    I can probably put together a deal to lend Tesla 2 billion but we will need collaterals, say the gigafactory and more.  It will be terms that Tesla will not give up. 

     


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Mithras:

    The one thing that hasn't really been mentioned in all of this is raw material. Tell me what the price is for Lithium right now. 3N, 4N, 5N+... Is there a spot price? Nope. Totally opaque market with no real new supply (and there was rain in Chile this year so you loose a bunch of production out of the atacama). Tesla has off takes with a bunch of lithium producers (there aren't a lot) and I'm pretty sure have almost all of the hard rock lithium tied up. You want to build EVs? You need batteries. And in those batteries you need lithium. Teslas might not be the best EV, or the one that makes you happy but are fantastic at the peripherals. Charging, home power, solar and batteries. 

    Lithium is indeed an interesting piece of the puzzle and it is true that Panasonic has a strong market position...

    LITHIUM

    1552078216939image.jpeg

    1552078255285image.jpeg

    1552078280792image.jpeg


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    EV's are basic transportation. Gas and diesel fueled cars are more than transportation thus enabling car makers to sell their products based on various features appealing to their market segment.

    Expensive EV's will die a quick death. The Taycan may initially be successful but at some point its going to dawn on owners that its nothing more than transportation. If Tesla can make a profit selling much lesser priced EV's they will be successful. Car makers selling expensive EV's will have problems.


    --

    There is nothing stronger than gentleness.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I’m not so sure Nick. Porsche is clever, and between handling, styling and marketing, they will overcome the ‘basic transportation’ perception for many customers. For those that have to commute everyday, it’s nice to believe your vehicle is something more than just transportation, even if it truly isn’t.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Every car except sports cars are basic transportation. Can you think that a 1.0L 4 cylinder which is 75hp is nothing else than transportation?

    for 99% of the driver, anything above $100k is untouchable. For 80%, it is anything above 50k...

    they will sell them all if nothing else is on the market and governments are pushing this way at least in Europe. And as anything else, there will be a market for cheap, average and luxury cars. It is just at the moment that Tesla is priced luxury but doesn’t look like luxury. Big drop in price is putting them average where they really belong to.

     


    --

    GT Lover, Porsche fan

    991.2 GT3 manual, 991 GT3 2014(sold)

    Cayenne GTS 2014


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    100% agree. People are seen in cars and they will always be socially attached to them. It seems highly unlikely that this reality will ever change. In particular, there is no logic to think there would be any difference between EV and non-EV cars in this regard. Why should there be a difference? Identical products. Just different power source. Rest is identical.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    MKSGR:

    100% agree. People are seen in cars and they will always be socially attached to them. It seems highly unlikely that this reality will ever change. In particular, there is no logic to think there would be any difference between EV and non-EV cars in this regard. Why should there be a difference? Identical products. Just different power source. Rest is identical.

    You're thinking is what many of the older generation feel. Not so with the younger generation. Many don't want cars. That's why Uber and Lyft are growing and investing in self driving cars. A car is a very expensive mode of transportation.


    --

    There is nothing stronger than gentleness.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    EVs, as basic transportation, for going from point A to point A plus a few miles, is pretty perfect. Like those Car2Go car sharing service. 

    Those clients really need nothing else more than very basic transportation.

    Others people that live inn the city and had no need for going long trips are also prime candidates for EVs. With lots of big cities right now, there is a good size market.

    But for others, that like driving, that takes out a special car Sunday morning for sprinted drives, EV perhaps are not the car for them. They could however have one just for weekdays going to and from work.

     


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    nberry:
    MKSGR:

    100% agree. People are seen in cars and they will always be socially attached to them. It seems highly unlikely that this reality will ever change. In particular, there is no logic to think there would be any difference between EV and non-EV cars in this regard. Why should there be a difference? Identical products. Just different power source. Rest is identical.

    You're thinking is what many of the older generation feel. Not so with the younger generation. Many don't want cars. That's why Uber and Lyft are growing and investing in self driving cars. A car is a very expensive mode of transportation.

     

    Yes, Uber and Lyft are also prime candidates for EVs. They only do short distances and the operating cost is minimal other than time cost for charging.


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    nberry:
    MKSGR:

    100% agree. People are seen in cars and they will always be socially attached to them. It seems highly unlikely that this reality will ever change. In particular, there is no logic to think there would be any difference between EV and non-EV cars in this regard. Why should there be a difference? Identical products. Just different power source. Rest is identical.

    You're thinking is what many of the older generation feel. Not so with the younger generation. Many don't want cars. That's why Uber and Lyft are growing and investing in self driving cars. A car is a very expensive mode of transportation.

    Taxis are nothing new... Of course, if you don't want to own a car then you are less interested in what car you use (as long as other people can clearly identify you as a taxi/rental car user). However, it is extremely unlikely that a very large percentage of car owners will discontinue to own cars. In big cities this is different of course. But outside of major cities? I don't think so....


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    MKSGR:
    nberry:
    MKSGR:

    100% agree. People are seen in cars and they will always be socially attached to them. It seems highly unlikely that this reality will ever change. In particular, there is no logic to think there would be any difference between EV and non-EV cars in this regard. Why should there be a difference? Identical products. Just different power source. Rest is identical.

    You're thinking is what many of the older generation feel. Not so with the younger generation. Many don't want cars. That's why Uber and Lyft are growing and investing in self driving cars. A car is a very expensive mode of transportation.

    Taxis are nothing new... Of course, if you don't want to own a car then you are less interested in what car you use (as long as other people can clearly identify you as a taxi/rental car user). However, it is extremely unlikely that a very large percentage of car owners will discontinue to own cars. In big cities this is different of course. But outside of major cities? I don't think so....

    Also worth keeping in mind that priorities change when those youngsters grow up and have a family... at which point the vast majority will prefer to own a car, with their own baby seats, toys, snacks, music, books, etc. Smiley

    Once you enjoy the pleasures and freedoms of car ownership, it's a small step to buy another car just to enjoy!  1538770913308image.gif


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Boxster Coupe GTS:
    MKSGR:
    nberry:
    MKSGR:

    100% agree. People are seen in cars and they will always be socially attached to them. It seems highly unlikely that this reality will ever change. In particular, there is no logic to think there would be any difference between EV and non-EV cars in this regard. Why should there be a difference? Identical products. Just different power source. Rest is identical.

    You're thinking is what many of the older generation feel. Not so with the younger generation. Many don't want cars. That's why Uber and Lyft are growing and investing in self driving cars. A car is a very expensive mode of transportation.

    Taxis are nothing new... Of course, if you don't want to own a car then you are less interested in what car you use (as long as other people can clearly identify you as a taxi/rental car user). However, it is extremely unlikely that a very large percentage of car owners will discontinue to own cars. In big cities this is different of course. But outside of major cities? I don't think so....

    Also worth keeping in mind that priorities change when those youngsters grow up and have a family... at which point the vast majority will prefer to own a car, with their own baby seats, toys, snacks, music, books, etc. Smiley

    Once you enjoy the pleasures and freedoms of car ownership, it's a small step to buy another car just to enjoy!  1538770913308image.gif

    Not sure I agree entirely but if true the perfect car for them will be a reasonably priced EV. Not a luxury EV.Smiley

    Also , the younger generation is saddle with huge debt (student loans) and other expenses to reach a point of getting employment. Hell many of them are still living with their parents.Smiley


    --

    There is nothing stronger than gentleness.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Elon has big plans for ownership. With self driving cars it will be easy to let the car keep working after you take it to work rather than pay for expensive parking. The owner get priority service and makes money owning the car. It’s a new world. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Like a home, if a car were to be shared, I would not own it, just rent it... But if I own it, it needs to be significantly better than its peers. All my real estate and cars are exceptional one way or the other and their cost was secondary to the satisfaction they provide by their true perceived qualities. Same for jewelry although of course these are not shareable items (yet, not that’s an idea though)...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    Like a home, if a car were to be shared, I would not own it, just rent it... But if I own it, it needs to be significantly better than its peers. All my real estate and cars are exceptional one way or the other and their cost was secondary to the satisfaction they provide by their true perceived qualities. Same for jewelry although of course these are not shareable items (yet, not that’s an idea though)...

    And kids today simply see it as an appliance. Not a home or car at all. If you can own it and let it work for you even better. The future is in owning robots or cars etc that go to work for you.  No kid these days wants to work an actual job. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    "Why the arrival of fully autonomous cars reflects the slow rise of the robot" (Autocar)

    Five decades after television promised us robotic assistants, we're still waiting – so will autonomous cars follow suit?

    (8 March 2019)

    German chemicals giant BASF is, apparently, hard at work developing special paint to stop autonomous cars crashing into each other.

    It’s to do with lidar, a sensor that uses reflected laser beams to draw a highly detailed 3D pictureof whatever happens to be in the car's way.

    Expensive and often bulky roof-mounted lidar is widely used in autonomous car development. It isn’t yet common as part of production cars’ advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), but it's set to become quite a big deal (although Tesla boss Elon Musk may disagree).

    It turns out, however, that the darker shades of paint preferred by many car buyers don’t reflect lidar very well, which is a problem that BASF is setting out to address (the ins and outs of how the new paint works are about as interesting as watching it dry, but look here if you want some more detail).

    Lidar-absorbing paint is just one of hundreds, perhaps thousands, of hurdles in the way of self-driving cars, delaying the arrival of full autonomy for some years to come. Many car makers have been quietly back-peddling on their claims of a few years ago that they would have fully autonomous cars on the road by, well, about now.

    Stories of new self-driving car trials regularly appear in the press, however, and a number are already under way in the UK (at Manchester and Gatwick airports and in London’s Canary Wharf, for example), but these vehicles all operate within a clearly defined area and perform repetitive, known journeys. In some cases, they're what you would recognise as a conventional car, albeit with the addition of roof-mounted lidar – Waymo's Jaguar I-Pace fleet, or Addison Lee and Oxbotica’s Canary Wharf taxis a case in point – while others are decidedly odd-looking, pod-like things.

    You could argue – and I’m going to – that the development of self-driving cars mirrors the rise of the robot, which has taken quite a bit longer to come to fruition than we were once led to believe it might. In the 1960s, spurred on by sci-fi films and TV shows, society was sold the idea of quasi-humanoid automatons tending to its every need "only a few years from now". I’m still waiting for mine.

    When robots were first adopted for industrial manufacturing roles, they didn’t resemble anything that you or I might once have imagined they might look like. We got at times odd-looking, if high-tech, machines performing a set range of repetitive tasks within a confined area. Sound familiar?

    It’s only now, six decades or more on, that the reality of that original robotic promise is bearing fruit that might appeal to the everyday consumer. If you want to be both impressed and terrified in equal measure, have a look at some of Boston Dynamics’ offerings.

    Many of the American company’s creations are approaching C-3PO levels of domestic – and military – usefulness, in some ways similar to but in other ways quite different from the ‘Danger, Will Robinson’ concept of the 1950s. All of them, though, are quite hypnotically robotic.

    Boston Dynamics has been refining its technology since 1992, and getting to where it is today has been time-consuming, complex and, you would imagine, very costly.

    A bit like autonomous cars, then. And there are other parallels. In robotic terms, a major stumbling block remains the development of the artificial intelligence (AI) capability that will allow a robot to perform with true autonomy and interact with a changing world around it rather than simply executing the same routines again and again with unwavering precision and accuracy. Just like self-driving cars.

    A car’s sensors may be able to detect everything in the vicinity (paint finishes permitting), but the AI algorithms required to analyse and decide what to do with that data remain very much at the ‘work in progress’ stage.

    Autonomous cars do at least have one advantage over robots, though, in that their purpose is predetermined and relatively specific. In time, robots might be expected to do just about anything; all a self-driving car has to do is, well, drive. Although that is turning out to be a bit more difficult to achieve than was first thought.

    We’ll get there in the end. But the end is probably a lot further off than than we’ve been led to believe, and it might not look like how we imagined it once we arrive.

    This is the autonomous vehicle development leaderboard from Navigant Research:

    1552204773201image.jpeg

    Link:  https://www.autocar.co.uk/opinion/technology/why-arrival-fully-autonomous-cars-reflects-slow-rise-robot


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The sensors are not what is behind self driving cars. It is the code. Incredibly complex logic paired with massive computing horsepower. In the end they will be able to drive your car using any old camera through a pinhole. It’s the code that holds the secret. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Leawood911:

    The sensors are not what is behind self driving cars. It is the code. Incredibly complex logic paired with massive computing horsepower. In the end they will be able to drive your car using any old camera through a pinhole. It’s the code that holds the secret. 

    In aircraft and on boats, radar technology is considered rather important... why not for self-driving cars?  1550096185373image.gif


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    They will figure out solid state Lidar soon enough. Indeed the code is where the secret sauce is.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Boxster Coupe GTS:
    Leawood911:

    The sensors are not what is behind self driving cars. It is the code. Incredibly complex logic paired with massive computing horsepower. In the end they will be able to drive your car using any old camera through a pinhole. It’s the code that holds the secret. 

    In aircraft and on boats, radar technology is considered rather important... why not for self-driving cars?  1550096185373image.gif

    Old tech around long before super computers. If that is all you have that is what you use. 


     
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